Providing for the UK’s Energy Needs

Primary Energy Demand

Oil and gas together met three quarters of primary energy demand in 2006 and demand is forecast to increase significantly. Under DTI’s ‘favourable to coal’ scenario described in the 2006 Energy Review, oil and gas together will contribute 78% of primary energy demand by 2020, while under the ‘favourable to gas’ scenario their contribution will rise to 83%. Both scenarios are based on the same assumptions regarding the future provision of nuclear and coal plant and their availability. The difference between the two scenarios is the extent of fuel-switching between gas and coal from 2006 onwards as a result of price differentials.

Figure 13: UK Primary Energy Demand 1970-2020

In contrast to oil and gas, the contribution of coal to meeting primary energy demand falls from 20% in 2006 to 10-14% in 2020, depending on the scenario considered. Under current plans for nuclear plants, the contribution of nuclear to primary energy demand falls from 7% in 2006 to only 3% in 2020. While the share of renewables doubles between 2005 and 2020, it grows from such a small base that it will still only satisfy 4-5% of primary energy demand at the end of those 15 years.